EIA forecast · United States · forecast track record

What EIA projected, and what actually happened

Every Annual Energy Outlook since 2015 has projected US power demand and the fuel mix, and utilities and regulators plan against it. Here each edition's Reference case meets what actually happened. Projections: AEO Tables 8, 9 and 16. Actuals: Monthly Energy Review, Electric Power Annual and STEO (2025 preliminary). There was no AEO2024.

Read the misses fairly: each Reference case reflects current law and the assumptions EIA held when that edition was published, so a miss measures changed assumptions as well as the model.